What: Champions League First Knockout Round – 2nd Leg
Who: AC Milan (5th - Serie A) v Arsenal (1st - EPL)
When: Tuesday, 4th March, 2008 - 20:45 (CET)
Where: San Siro Stadium, Milan

his is without doubt the tie of the first knockout round, and following their entertaining scoreless draw in the first leg, AC Milan and Arsenal will do it all over again this week at the San Siro. A score must eventuate from this match - even if it takes a penalty shoot-out - so it will be extremely interesting to see what unfolds in Milan.

European Champions Looking Good

Following their successful trip to the Emirates, from which they came away with a 0-0 draw, reigning European champions AC Milan are in the box seat to progress in this tie. Ancelotti’s men have been in reasonable if unspectacular form in recent times, in fact, they are unbeaten in their past ten outings in all competitions, allowing them to work their way up to a respectable fifth position in the Serie A. But they have only won one of the last six, drawing five.

Their most recent result came against Lazio only a few days ago, as the Rossoneri were held to another disappointing 1-1 draw. They were without key players Kaka, Pirlo, Nesta and Maldini, whilst also losing the services of Seedorf, Emerson and Jankulovski during the course of the game.

Arsenal will obviously be a much tougher opponent for Milan than their Roman opponents proved to be. But the Rossoneri  will no doubt lift themselves for this occasion, as they usually do in the Champions League. Their home record this season has been impressive, as they have managed three wins from three matches in this competition, whilst only being defeated twice in thirteen in the domestric league thus far. Given also that no English club have beaten Milan yet at the San Siro in a competitive European tie, it looks as if the Gunners will have their work cut out this week to reach the quarter-finals..

The Rossoneri must be cautious of conceding, for if they do let one in early, they will need to score twice. This tie is thus delicately poised, and as a result, a thoroughly absorbing game could be in prospect.. Ancelotti must ensure his side heap more pressure on Arsenal than they did two weeks ago, when thry were lucky to leave London with a draw, partcularly since Emmanual Adebayor headed against the bar in the game’s last attack. But if the hosts can add more of a cutting edge to their game in front of the full house expected at the San Siro, Milan will be confident of  progressing.  But they will take Arsenal lightly at their peril, in spite of the Gunners’ recent run of results.

Fear Of An Empty Cabinet Persists

Arsenal have enjoyed an outstanding season in the Premier League, which they continue to lead from Manchester United, albeit now by a solitary point. But despite having consistently produced brilliant football, there have been signs in the last few weeks  that things are not as buoyant as they were. Since the turn of the year the Gunners have suffered two heavy defeats in the domestic cups - losing 5-1 at Tottenham in the Carling Cup, which Spurs went on to win, and then being thumpoed 4-0 by United in the FA Cup. In neither match were Arsenal at full strength, but the manner of the defeats rocked their confidence.

They have still lost only once all season in the Premier League, but successive draws against the two Birmingham clubs, City and Aston Villa, have seen a five-point lead at the top trimmed to one by in-form Manchester United. Against Birmingham, Arsene Wenger’s side lost Croatian striker Eduardo for the rest of the season and beyond to a reckless challenge from Martin Taylor that left the Arsenal forward with a double compound fracture of the fibula and an open dislocation of the ankle. The impact of the horrific injury on the other Arsenal players was still evident on Saturday, when the Gunners needed a last-minute strike from Nicklas Bendtner to salvage a point, preserve their unbeaten home record and cling on to pole position.

Amid all this domestic excitement, the Gunners took on Milan two weeks ago and were disappointed not to win. But they failed to take their chances and so find themselves deadlocked at 0-0, needing a goal or two against the holders to preserve their dream of reaching a second Champions League final in three seasons. Of course, a score-draw or any sort of Arsenal victory would be enough to knock Milan out, so the North Londoners - who won 5-1 at the San Siro in a Champions League group game against Inter in 2003 - still have everything to play for.

This will be a test of their mental strength, team unity and will to win as much as a talent contest, with psychology likely to play an influential role. Having been knocked out of the FA Cup so emphatically just under a month ago, and with their lead slashed at the top of the Premier League table to a single point, trophies and success are no longer certainties at the Emirates this season.  That would be a cruel fate after some of the exhilarating football they’ve played, and could be starting to prey on the minds of a still inexperienced squad.

But at least they travel to Milan this week on the back of that 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, Wenger insisting that Bendtner’s 93rd minute leveller will be pivotal to their season.

Like that of their Italian opponents, Arsenal’s form in recent matches has been pale rather than purple, and they have not won a match in their past four outings. In fact, their most recent victory came against Blackburn Rovers, when they came away with a 2-0 victory on the 11th February.

Their form on the road in this competition has been patchy, as they have only managed one victory in three attempts, recording a 1-0 win over Steaua Bucuresti, thanks to a 76th minute strike from Robin Van Persie. A positive result on the road this time around is a must for Arsenal, but achieving it would also give the squad and the club as a whole a massive boost for the remainder of the season.

Changes From The First Leg

Both sides are expected to name relatively similar line-ups, with a few minor changes due to injury. For the home side, Ancelotti is set to call upon the talent and experience of the Uefa Competitions’ all-time top-scorer, ‘Super Pippo’ Inzaghi, as he will be given a start up front alongside wonder kid Alexandre Pato. Clarence Seedorf is likely to miss out through injury, however if he were to recover in time, it is expected that the Rossoneri would  prefer Inzaghi over Pato for such a significant fixture.

Although they did have their share of chances in the first leg, Milan were simply not threatening enough in attack, and this resulted in not only their failure to score, but their failure to consistently apply pressure on the Arsenal defence. In this leg, they must be more attack-minded, as goals are the key to progression for them.

The Gunners meanwhile, played typical English football in the first leg, going all-out on the attack from the onset, and were desperately unlucky not to score. In the second leg however, they will have to be extremely cautious of their own attacking style of play. Not only will it be tough to break down their opponents’ defence, they must also be aware of Milan’s deadly threat on the counter-attack. Arsenal know that if they give Milan a chance, they will make them pay.

With Eduardo out with his broken leg, Bendtner or Theo Walcott may be called upon to partner Adebayor in attack, with Van Persie waiting in the wings if necessary. Having played against Villa at the weekend, Almunia should retain his place between the sticks for Arsenal.

FORM GUIDE

AC Milan

March 1 v Lazio (H) DREW 1-1
February 27 v Catania (A) DREW 1-1
February 24 v Palermo (H) WON 2-1
February 20 v Arsenal (A) DREW 0-0 (Champions League)
February 16 v Parma (A) DREW 0-0

Arsenal

March 1 v Aston Villa (H) DREW 1-1
February 23 v Birmingham (A) DREW 2-2
February 20 v Milan (H) DREW 0-0 (Champions League)
February 16 v Man United (A) LOST 0-4 (FA Cup)
February 11 v Blackburn (H) WON 2-0

TEAM NEWS

AC Milan

Ancelotti has a whole host of injuries to deal with in the lead-up to this match, including the fitness of Dutch veteran Clarence Seedorf, who picked up a muscular injury against Lazio at the weekend. He is rated as having a 50/50 chance of playing; however the early signs are not promising.

As mentioned earlier, if he is to miss out, Inzaghi and Pato will start up front together. Also in the Lazio match, both Emerson and Jankulovski succumbed to injury, and are certain to miss the second leg. There are doubts still lingering over the fitness of star central defender Nesta, and more importantly over the FIFA World Player of the year, Kaka, however both are expected to recover in time.

Arsenal

Wenger practically has a full strength squad at his disposal for this second leg, obviously with the exception of Eduardo, who horrifically had his leg broken in the match against Birmingham just over a week ago.

It is yet to be confirmed whether or not Kolo Toure will take his place in the starting line-up, as he is still battling the injury he sustained the last time these two sides met. If he fails to recover in time, Senderos will be given a start once again, however following his average performance at the weekend, the Arsenal fans will certainly be hoping for a speedy Toure recovery.

Robin Van Persie, meanwhile, has been judged as ready to join the squad by Arsene Wenger, but the coach is reluctant to risk starting the youngster.

POSSIBLIE STARTING LINE-UPS

AC Milan (4-3-1-2) Kalac; Oddo, Nesta, Maldini, Kaladze; Ambrosini, Pirlo; Gattuso; Kaka; Pato, Inzaghi

Arsenal (4-4-2) Almunia; Sagna, Senderos, Gallas, Clichy; Hleb, Fabregas, Diaby, Flamini; Walcott, Adebayor

PLAYERS TO WATCH

AC Milan – Kaka

Due to his lack of input in the first leg, Kaka will without doubt be looking to make amends for that performance, and what better opportunity to have, than to do so in front of the Milan fans at the San Siro. He has been struggling in recent times with an ongoing knee problem, however, regardless of the pain he feels Tuesday night, Kaka is certain to take his place in the starting line-up, and likely to have a major impact on proceedings. Mark my words, he will either score on the night, or do something magical to produce a goal for his side.

Arsenal – Emmanuel Adebayor

Adebayor was his side’s most dangerous attacking player in the first leg, and was extremely unlucky not to come away with a goal or two in that match. He has another ninety minutes to do so in Milan, however in very different circumstances. He has been a goal scoring machine this season, and the Gunners will need something special from him this week, if they are to obtain a good enough result against the Rossoneri to progress to the next phase of the competition.

PREDICTION

What a match this will be. Two of the world’s best sides, locking horns at one of the greatest stadiums in Europe, in front of a capacity crowd, with the score line locked at 0-0 for now. Who will come out on top – will it be the experience of Milan or the youth of Arsenal? That is definitely a difficult question to answer.

However, in my opinion, the degree of difficulty aligned with defeating Milan at the San Siro will be too much for the youth of Arsenal to handle. Following a frantic start to proceedings, the game will slowly begin to settle, and the stage will be set for Kaka to net his twelfth goal of the season in all competitions, midway through the second half. Milan to progress to the quarter finals of the competition, leaving their English opponents to ponder what could have been…

Milan 1-0 Arsenal  (goal.com)